By Rick Schwerd | November 21, 2025
Our investment team remains committed to sharing updates and market insights to keep you informed. Please look for
our next update on December 5.
Government Shutdown Ends
The longest government shutdown in history ended after an agreement was reached when just enough Democrats in the
Senate beat the filibuster. Markets largely ignored the shutdown, although it may have been one factor contributing
to the equity market softness that started a few weeks ago.
Several government economic releases are expected in the coming weeks. Although the September labor market report was
released yesterday, October’s jobs report will be released separately and not included with the November
report, slated for a delayed release on December 16. There will be no unemployment rate reported for October since
the Bureau of Labor Statistics was not able to collect data.
September Labor Market Report
September’s labor market report was stronger than expected. The economy added 119,000 jobs , more than double
the 50,000 that had been forecasted. Job gains from the prior two months were also revised lower and averaged just
33,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, its highest level in four years, mainly due to nearly half a
million people joining the labor force.
The report clouds the outlook for an additional Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting. Minutes from the
last meeting were released this week and showed unusual disagreement among Fed governors. A month ago, markets
viewed a December rate cut as almost certain. Now it’s a toss-up.
Nvidia Reports Earnings
The largest S&P 500 company, by market value, reported strong third-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the
market close. Both earnings and revenue beat expectations and shares initially rallied. Nvidia’s stock had
dropped approximately 15 percent after reaching an all-time high of $212 per share in late October. However, the
stock has gained 40 percent year-to-date and is up a remarkable 120 percent off its April lows.
CEO Jensen Huang dismissed speculation of an AI bubble and said demand growth would continue through next year and
beyond.
The strong numbers initially helped boost markets, which have been down over the past month. However, at midday
yesterday stocks reversed course and resumed their sell-off. The S&P 500 is off approximately 5.5 percent from its
late October all-time high, and the NASDAQ was down by nearly 8 percent. We view the current pullback as markets
letting off some steam and not a major directional change. Pullbacks of 5 to 10 percent are a normal occurrence. We
believe equities remain in a secular bull market, however some consolidation at current levels would not be
unexpected.
Looking Forward
With Nvidia’s results behind us, the focus shifts to upcoming economic data. Next week we receive updated
third-quarter GDP data, the annual revisions to housing-related indicators and the October Personal Consumption
Expenditure (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. These releases will help shape expectations for
the December Fed meeting.
As always, if you have any questions or concerns regarding markets or your financial planning needs, please reach out
to us at (518) 415-4401.
About the Author: With almost three decades of financial industry experience, Rick serves as a
Senior Investment Officer at Arrow Bank, formerly named Glens Falls National Bank and Saratoga National Bank. He
oversees individual and corporate retirement plans, personal trusts, investment management accounts, foundations
and not-for-profit relationships.